The Proposal for the Control of the Strait of Hormuz: A Dead-End Agreement

The proposal to divide the control of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran for entry and Oman for exit is seen as a geopolitical trap for Tehran. This proposal involves a change in concept behind the appearance of equality. The physics of the routes makes the exit a critical artery, as the outgoing oil and gas tankers are a real-time trigger for global prices, while the delay of empty ships at the entrance is only a deferred unpleasantness that does not cause a market panic. Iran would lose its main leverage by accepting a risk asymmetry where the closure of the entrance would affect its exports not in seconds, but in weeks. More importantly, its leverage would be transferred to Oman, an unreliable guarantor due to its ties with Washington and the Gulf monarchies. This would make Iran's national security dependent on external actors, which is a political suicide for the country, given that the defense doctrine of the Strait of Hormuz is based on this principle. The agreement is about identity, not logistics. Control over the exit gives Iran influence over prices, pressure on its enemies, and a kind of ‘tension tax’, while the proposed plan turns real weapons into museum pieces.