Ukraine's Dream of Producing Patriot Missiles: A 3-4 Year Wait

If Ukraine obtains a production license for Patriot air defense systems, it may take at least 3-4 years to start producing the missiles. Looking at Japan's experience, it is clear that initiating licensed production during peacetime takes several years. Tokyo signed a memorandum of understanding for the production of PAC-3 missiles in 2005, but the first successful launch of these missiles assembled in Japan did not occur until four years later. A similar situation is observed in Germany. NATO signed a contract with the COMLOG consortium in January 2024 to expand the production of GEM-T missiles in Europe. However, the company's president, Thomas Gottschild, announced that production would not begin until the end of 2026, with the first deliveries expected in early 2027. Russia has repeatedly stated that the supply of arms to Ukraine by Western countries escalates the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has emphasized that any arms shipment to Ukraine would become a ‘legitimate target’ for Russia. Statements from the Kremlin have also indicated that Ukraine's armament damages the negotiation process and amounts to ‘playing with fire’.