Why Are Food Prices Not Decreasing Despite the Harvest?

In Turkey, food inflation continues to rise despite the intense harvest season. Ege University Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Emeritus Professor Dr. Cengiz Çakır made evaluations regarding food inflation, production planning, market structure, and public policies. Prof. Dr. Çakır stated that the approach of "increasing costs raising prices" does not fully reflect the functioning of the agricultural economy, and that production costs are only finalized after the production is complete:

There is no relationship between costs and agricultural product prices in the short term. Additionally, the exact cost can only be calculated after everything is completed.

Çakır emphasized that agricultural production has a high "inertia moment", and that sometimes it is economically necessary to continue production even if it means incurring losses:

Agricultural production has a high inertia moment. It is not possible to suddenly stop agricultural activity, just like a massive ship in the sea cannot suddenly stop.

Sharing his expectations for the fall and winter seasons, Çakır said that production will not completely stop seasonally. He reminded that the planting period for winter vegetables has begun and expressed that a productive season is expected for products like cabbage, broccoli, lettuce, turnip, and parsley:

The planting of winter vegetables has begun. Autumn is usually a time of abundance. During the summer, a portion of the winter provisions are prepared through methods like drying, canning, and making sauce.

Prof. Dr. Cengiz Çakır stated that food inflation can no longer be explained solely by seasonal fluctuations and that current economic policies also have an impact on prices:

Turkey has previously faced much higher inflation rates than it does now. If worker wages and public servant salaries are increased sufficiently, the problem will be alleviated.

Çakır pointed out that Turkey's logistics structure also has a significant impact on food inflation, and that meeting the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables in large cities like Istanbul from hundreds of kilometers away increases costs:

Meeting the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables in a megacity like Istanbul from 850 kilometers away in Antalya increases logistical costs.

Referring to the effects of last year's agricultural frost, Prof. Dr. Cengiz Çakır mentioned that the frost, hail, drought, and extreme heat in 2025 negatively affected production but did not lead to a long-term production loss:

Agricultural enterprises are like open factories. It rains, hails, freezes, and there are droughts and floods. We are in a period of intensified extreme climate conditions.

Çakır stated that Turkey's production planning issues cannot be resolved solely by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and that agriculture needs to be considered together with energy, transportation, finance, education, and industrial policies:

Agriculture cannot be planned independently. For example, if you decide to increase irrigation efficiency by switching to a pressurized irrigation system, you cannot implement this system without electricity at the wellhead.