Two Possible Scenarios for the Marmara Earthquake: Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş Explains

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş has presented two different scenarios for the Marmara earthquake. The compression of the Anatolian Plate around İzmit and Şarköy could lead to an earthquake larger than 7.Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, in his new assessment of Marmara earthquake scenarios, highlighted the different dynamics on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Bektaş stated that the Anatolian Plate is compressed in the narrow and frictional fault sections around İzmit to the east and Şarköy to the west as it moves westward.Bektaş stated: "As the Anatolian Plate moves westward, it becomes compressed in the narrow and frictional fault sections around İzmit to the east and Şarköy to the west. It may need to accumulate large energy and create a large rupture (M7+) to overcome these obstacles."Bektaş noted that the fault in the middle of the Marmara Sea passes through a wider, weaker, and more slippery environment, making another scenario possible.Bektaş made the following assessment: "Therefore, the plate movement may release energy not through a single large rupture, but through smaller earthquakes of M6+ magnitude and creep."