Attention Drawn to Segment in Istanbul That Has Not Produced an Earthquake in 260 Years

Drawing attention to the segment in Istanbul that has not produced an earthquake in 260 years, Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş explained different earthquake scenarios. Bektaş stated, 'The plate movement may be shared not only along the Main Marmara Fault but also among the faults surrounding the Çınarcık, Central Marmara, and Tekirdağ troughs. The segment in between may be partially relieving stress through medium-sized earthquakes.'Indicating that the danger in Marmara continues, Bektaş said, 'The statement "the time for Istanbul has come, a large earthquake is at the door" does not align with modern earthquake science. A definite time for an earthquake cannot be given.'

If these mechanisms are effective, it may be misleading to conclude that the 250-year Istanbul earthquake period is over based solely on the time that has passed since 1766. The earthquake danger in Marmara continues; however, to understand this, we need to look at all geological and geophysical data together, not just one model. The statement 'the time for Istanbul has come, a large earthquake is at the door' does not align with modern earthquake science. A definite time for an earthquake cannot be given.

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş pointed out the earthquake risk in Istanbul, saying, 'About 260 years have passed since 1766. Nevertheless, the segment between the earthquake series in the west in 1912 and 2011-2025 and the earthquakes in the east in 1963 and 1999 has not yet produced a large earthquake.'