The surface temperature of the sea in the Eastern Black Sea has increased by approximately 2.5 degrees over the past 40 years, with 1.6 degrees of this increase occurring over the past 10 years. The rising sea temperature is causing more intense and severe precipitation by carrying more moisture into the atmosphere, increasing the risk of floods and flash floods in coastal areas.
Professor Dr. Hakkı Baltacı, a member of the Gebze Technical University's Institute of Earth and Marine Sciences, examined the relationship between changes in sea water temperature and heavy rainfall in the Eastern Black Sea in his research.
The research found that the rise in sea water temperature to 26 degrees in recent years has increased the amount of moisture carried into the atmosphere, making it easier for intense precipitation to occur under suitable atmospheric conditions.
Baltacı emphasized that semi-enclosed seas like the Black Sea are affected by climate change in a more pronounced way. He stated that in the Black Sea, the warming of the sea poses a more serious risk in terms of disasters than the warming of the land.
Over the past 10 years, we have started to see the effects of climate change much more severely. As a result of this temperature increase, the sea water temperature in July and August used to be up to 25 degrees, but when we look at 2025, this temperature increase has reached 26 degrees, especially in late July and August. 26 degrees is a threshold value that poses a risk.
According to Baltacı, if current climate change trends continue, the irregular precipitation regime in the Eastern Black Sea will spread to the period between May and September, and intense precipitation will become more frequent, with the risk of floods increasing due to urbanization.
As part of the study, we identified and defined 6 different days on which heavy rainfall occurred above the threshold values in the Rize, Artvin, and Hopa areas of the Eastern Black Sea. These days were July 9, 2016, July 29, 2016, August 24, 2015, August 12, 2004, July 10, 1992, and August 29, 1988.
