The extraordinary temperatures in the Mediterranean are not unique to this year, as marine heatwaves have become more frequent and longer-lasting in recent years, Tağıl pointed out. Since 2023, sea surface temperatures in both the oceans and the Mediterranean have consistently been at record levels, Tağıl said, with unprecedented temperatures recorded in the Mediterranean in the first half of July and August this year.The average sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean has reached approximately 28.4 degrees, which is about 2 degrees above the long-term average.
The anticipated development of a 'strong El Nino' in the Pacific Ocean is also an important climate signal, Tağıl indicated, and continued:A large mass of warm water is accumulating in the equatorial Pacific. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that the likelihood of a strong El Nino development by the end of the year is around 80 percent.
The extraordinary heat stored in the Mediterranean during the summer serves as an early warning for the autumn, Tağıl warned, as high sea temperatures could contribute to warmer nights in coastal areas, an increase in tropical nights, and a prolonged impact of heatwaves. Tağıl emphasized that the actual risk may emerge in the autumn, as these high sea temperatures could provide additional energy and moisture to fuel severe downpours, extreme rainfall, sudden floods, and strong storms if they persist into the autumn and combine with suitable atmospheric conditions. The development of 'medicane' systems, which have some characteristics similar to tropical cyclones, is also influenced by the warm sea temperatures in the Mediterranean, Tağıl noted, highlighting the increased likelihood of such systems in recent years.It's not correct to say that a medicane will definitely form just because the sea is warm. For this to happen, suitable low-pressure systems, atmospheric instability, sufficient moisture, and appropriate wind conditions must occur simultaneously.